Decision making is a vital part of life that would be beneficial for one to master. We have to use decision making throughout our life in order to be successful. However, a major problem that you need to be aware of during the process is decision biases. A decision bias is an urge to make a decision in an irrational way. Now knowing of this concept, I would like to apply 5 different decision biases that may affect my current ISP project which is the attendance scanner. I believe this is a vital part of the project and can help my group achieve a better goal for this project. These five biases are Randomness, Bandwagon, Confirmation, Survivorship, and Overconfidence.
Randomness bias is one bias I believe my ISP group will face. A "randomness bias" is the tendency to try to find a pattern out of truly random information. A lot of time and effort can be expended in search of an answer to something that is truly meaningless. This can lead to conclusions that are far from true and set back the decision-making process. It can also be based on superstition. It is the flipping of statistical thinking, as psychologist Paul Warren (2017) puts it, and it is a "common mistake made by many researchers when cracking down on new discoveries". This bias can apply to our ISP because as we troubleshoot and write code, we can be presented with results or errors that indicate no pattern at all, but we might set ourselves back by trying to interpret them. This could slow down our team and reduce our efficiency. This is why I believe it should be accounted for.
To overcome this bias, my solution is for our team to have a better understanding of the algorithms and logic that go into our project. Having a base knowledge of how the foundation of an algorithm works can help eliminate the problem of having to interpret errors and code altogether. You would be able to identify when a result is truly random, and we would be able to save time on interpreting, which could take hours. I also think having a healthy prediction plan can help predict intended and unintended results, along with solutions to solve them. At the root of it, having a rational and logistic mindset can help eliminate any threats of randomness or superstition affecting our decision-making process.
A bandwagon bias is a tendency to side with one idea because the majority of people support it. This bias is even more problematic in group projects such as the ISP. A bandwagon can pressure people into conceding even when they are siding with the correct idea. The pressure plays into societal norms and the mind, causing rational thinking to go out the door. Furthermore, the T.I. Team (2022) states how the human mind favors being on the winning team rather than preserving its social identity. This is extremely dangerous for the decision-making process and could hurt the success of the project. I believe bandwagoning could be a problem for my team, as our size might make it difficult to agree on decisions, creating the possibility of bandwagon bias. A balanced and healthy team structure is vital in order to achieve maximum work efficiency, so I have come up with some solutions to counteract the bandwagon effect bias.
If there is ever a schism on a topic before any voting or stance is taken by the team, I believe each member should conduct research or gain a better understanding of the issue so that there is less chance of bias. Then there would be a process where each process is discussed and the pros and cons are weighed. Finally, we would take an anonymous vote on a decision so that no one changes their mind or knows the majority vote. This process would eliminate any threat of a bandwagon bias and build a civil decision-making strategy that can be applied to other biases as well. I also believe that each and every one of my team members would be able to resist bandwagon bias, as I already place a great deal of trust in them as team members. When a team is able to be better connected, personal and social biases like these are more unlikely to happen in the decision-making process.
Confirmation bias is a bias caused by only focusing on finding evidence to support a decision while ignoring anything that refutes that decision. It also causes one to reject any notion of refutation. Noor (2020) puts it best by saying that even confirmation bias sometimes mixes one's beliefs and evidence in their mind in order to justify their decision. A person can get so wrapped up in trying to prove a point or solution that they lose sight of the true goal. Confirmation bias puts decision-making at risk because it limits one's scope to assess a decision. I think this could be a problem in my ISP group because in today’s world it is so easy to access information, but not all information is credible, leading to problems of finding mediocre evidence to support a point while ignoring a large amount of evidence against their claim. This is why I have come up with possible solutions to avoid this bias.
One definite solution is to make sure that whenever our group uses any form of research, the source is heavily fact-checked, credible, and cross-analyzed with a similar credible source before it is able to be used in the decision-making process. By making sure we are using credible sources, we are able to avoid false evidence that helps feed confirmation bias. Another option is to weigh both the pros and cons of a decision to avoid overlooking any flaws in a solution. Finally, another way to avoid confirmation bias is to create a system in which no one in the group is assigned a task that may conflict with their personal interests. All these solutions can prepare my ISP team against confirmation bias.
Survivorship bias is when a person focuses too much on the successes of a decision, causing failure by neglecting the flaws. Chen (2021) exemplifies this through stocks by explaining how a person who only expects success in stocks because of their previous success is usually met with failure as they failed to account for those who busted. This bias is dangerous because optimism usually isn’t a bad thing, but too much of it can warp our idea of success, which disrupts the decision-making process. In my ISP project, especially with the AI components, it could be very easy to focus only on the success of certain components, which could cause us to neglect their flaws until it is too late. However, I believe I have come up with possible solutions that can help avoid this bias.
The simplest solution is to have a more realistic mindset with a perfect balance between optimism and pessimism. Seeing a decision in a neutral light helps fend against forming a more positive or negative opinion on it. When you can analyze something at its full value, you are able to truly determine its success. I think another solution is to have a mindset where you never assume things. With survivorship bias, it is easy to assume that if you replicate the success of another decision, you will get the same results, but that isn’t always true. If you never make assumptions about results, then you will be less likely to fall into this habit. Furthermore, being in a group for my ISP is very beneficial, as other people’s perspectives can help prevent survivorship bias.
This bias occurs when one has too much confidence in himself and will disregard the truth in order to be correct. It tends to happen when someone has greater knowledge of the topic than others, even if what they know may not be fully relevant. To put this in perspective, research was done on 300 professionals and managers, where over 70 percent believed they were experts at their line of work and 0 percent said their skills were below average. (CFI Team 2022) It demonstrates that having a certain level of efficiency in a topic already creates an internal confidence bias.In my ISP group, this bias may pose an issue as each member comes from a different skill background, which could lead to a clash of ideas.
I think a solution to this problem is to have a learning mindset. If you're able to accept mistakes and have a more open mind, you will tend to have less selfish thinking and a more rational mindset. Making our project a learning space will grow us as people and create a more efficient decision-making process. Another solution is to also be critical of your own decisions. If you get rid of your personal bias, the true nature of your decision is revealed to yourself. Overall, having a respectable amount of accountability will help eliminate any problems of overconfidence bias in my ISP project.
While decision bias presents a major obstacle in the decision-making process for my ISP project, I believe the solutions I have offered help counteract their influences and increase the efficiency in which we work. When we are able to move on from decision bias we are able to achieve greater success. It is important to take steps back like this to help assess potential problems down the road. Therefore, I believe my ISP project will be more successful.
Chen, J. (2022, November 22). Survivorship bias definition. Investopedia. Retrieved December 8, 2022, from https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/survivorshipbias.asp
Noor, I. (2020, June 10). How confirmation bias works. Confirmation Bias: Examples ; Observations - Simply Psychology. Retrieved December 8, 2022, from https://www.simplypsychology.org/confirmation-bias.html
Team, C. F. I. (2022, December 7). Overconfidence bias. Corporate Finance Institute. Retrieved December 8, 2022, from https://corporatefinanceinstitute.com/resources/wealth-management/overconfidence-bias/
Team, T. I. (2022, November 10). What is the bandwagon effect? why people follow the crowd. Investopedia. Retrieved December 8, 2022, from https://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/bandwagon-effect.asp
Warren, P. A. (2018, May). A re-examination of "bias" in human randomness perception. Journal of experimental psychology. Human perception and performance. Retrieved December 8, 2022, from https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5933241/